GSCI340 - Environmental Geology

The movie was very interesting. I think the most
profound statement was made at the end when the
cost of the earthquake in CA in 1989 was 10 billion
dollars, and the narrator specified that the earthquake
there was “not great.” It makes a person really
think about the financial risk involved for both
the city and the country as a whole when a small
earthquake can cause that much damage.

Long-term and short-term predictions are a curious
phenomena in geology right now. Basically, long therm
predictions are all geologists can really rely on
however, long term geologically and long-term in
human time are two very different things. Since we cannot
record data that was produced 1000 years ago, we
are currently looking for a reliable short term
predictor, such as the radio wave experiment the
featured geologist discovered before the actual quake
occurred. Waves actually spiked 20-30 X normal readings
until the machine went offline during the quake.

Here are some choice selections from an article I found
online:

http://news-service.stanford.edu/pr/91/911231Arc1006.html

Even Fraser-Smith (Loma Prieta earthquake researcher) is reserved.

“I’m not in the earthquake prediction business yet,” he said, emphasizing the need for more studies to verify Loma Prieta’s one-time finding. A finding based on only one or two occurrences runs the risk of being a fluke, he warned.

With support from the U.S. Geological Survey, he has set up two ULF detectors at Parkfield, Calif., where an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater has occurred on average every 22 years for the past century. Dubbed “The Watched Pot” by geologists, Parkfield is overdue for a temblor that could put ULF detectors to the test.

With support from the U.S. Geological Survey, he has set up two ULF detectors at Parkfield, Calif., where an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater has occurred on average every 22 years for the past century. Dubbed “The Watched Pot” by geologists, Parkfield is overdue for a temblor that could put ULF detectors to the test.

“This field offers some hope but is very indefinite,” said Seya Uyeda, a Texas A & M scientist who presided over the session with Fenoglio.

Uyeda has monitored electromagnetic waves in Japan, where his detectors have picked up ULF signals from electric trains, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. He has found higher levels of ULF activity during the day, suggesting that human activity produces background noise that may make precursor signals harder to detect.

However, one hour before a November 1987 earthquake in Japan, Uyeda’s ULF detector went off scale, he said. Like Fraser- Smith, he awaits further quakes to test his hypothesis.

“The question remains if any of these signals are real,” said Uyeda. “We don’t know yet.”

So basically, another example of how science has a lot to do with making a hypothesis and testing it-

The movie was very interesting, partly for the fact that it showed many of the precursers to an earthquake and the devastating effects of a substantial quake. I found the turn of the century earthqake in San Fransisco to be very interesting. People learned a hard lesson about building on loose sediments and that prior planning to building was needed in order to prevent that kind of devastation.

The crreunt state of earthquake prediction has come a long way yet has a lot of groung to cover. The long ter prediction is by far more acuret dew to the overall time frame. The value of a prdiction to society is price less. Future plannig of bulding coads and the location of structiors by location to fault line can help tramendasly. The study of earthquakes by sizemograph advanced our understanding of how earthquake waves move and the relation in the differant waves. In referance to the S and P waves. The reoccurence rate of earthquakes in Parkfirld California took some of the guss work out of were to study a eartheuake predictions. Their may have never been another earthquake their but the likelyhood of it was probable and rewarding to say the least. Since the video was made some more earthquakes have been predicted accuretly but some predictions have been made and no earthquake and that has been a sore spot over the isseu. Yes Parkfied was succesfull but not exactly in the time that it was origenaly hoped for because an earthquake did come just not in the 22 years that was hoped for. It took a littel longer then anticepated but good reserch has came from the test conducted hear. In order to live in a nown sismice are the only thing one can do is bild for the worst posible earthquake and hope for the best.I learnd a grat deal from what exactly causes earthquakes to how they cause the damage that the do. I have enjoyed this presentation.

The Nova video was very interesting in that it promoted many of the basic tools and methods that were originated during this time period. For example there was the discovery of P and S waves, the invention of the seismograph, Richter’s magnitude scale, and eventually the development of the theory of plate tectonics (considered one of the greatest scientific discoveries of the 20th Century). The film seemed to be mainly focused on how and if an earthquake can be predicted some substantial time prior to it actually occurring. One of the interesting things is that there was an accurately predicted large earthquake in China in 1975. But hopes were all but dropped when there was another earthquake that occurred just a year and a half later occurring in the same area, which just goes to show that the predictions of ‘quakes are far from happening (accurately). Paleoseismology was also another “tool” for examining the occurrence of an earthquake. At this time the studies were fairly new and were not the best way of predicting an earthquake but it helped nevertheless. All in all this movie was primarily about finding a foolproof method for at least forecasting and possibly find the knowledge to outright have the capabilities and resources to long term prediction of earthquakes.

The Nova video was very interesting, it showed how the improvment of technology has significantly improved the ability to predict when an earthquake will occur and where. What I found interesting was that most the equipment being used gathers information using rather basic concepts.

Scientists in the California Earthquake hazards program believe that the data captured from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake “will advance their understanding of how earthquakes occur, cause damage, and if they will be predictable in the future.”

the 6.0 magnitude quake hit in the San Andrea Fault at 10:15 a.m. on Sept. 28, 2004. Years after it had been predicted to hit. But because of the lateness of its coming, the Geological Survey scientests were prepared to record everything that happened. More than 100 researchers had been working in the area since d1985 and they coordinated their equipment and research to gain a more thorough understanding of earthquake “behavour.”

This endeavor brought together the USGeological Survey Earthquake Hazards program, the California geological Surgey, the California Seismic Safety Commission, and a few more groups all government and all willing to work together.
The Advanced Seismic System, is being implemented to improve earthquake monitoring and reporting. It is a nationwide network of 7000 seismometers that provide emergency resonse personnel with real time shaking infor. and provide information on how buildings stand up to the shaking of the quakes.
And the San Andreas fault Observatory at Depth has a new drillhole in an active area of the fault in order to measure the frequant smaller earthquakes.

http://www.scec.org/education/040930parkfield.html